When you look at the games in the pipeline for the second half of 2007 across all platforms, it's a pretty stellar lineup, and the industry will no doubt post another record year as a result. But which games will top the sales charts? We ask analysts for their top picks, their surprises and possible disappointments.Big hits
When it comes to the biggest hits of the year, most people think of two franchises: Grand Theft Auto and Halo. Indeed, Halo 3 and GTA IV are going to resume the retail battle last had by their predecessors, Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas and Halo 2, in 2004. Madden NFL 2008 shouldn't be slept on either, as this "evergreen," multi-platform franchise will likely compete for the year's best selling game.
"It's pretty clear that Grand Theft Auto IV and Halo 3 will be the top sellers, with perennial favorites like Madden NFL and Need for Speed right behind," said Pachter. "All four games have a huge fan base, and in the case of the first two, gamers have been waiting for three years, so there is a lot of pent-up demand."
Greenwald agreed with this evaluation, saying in short, "Halo 3, GTA IV - huge franchises, huge loyal fanbases." He added post-E3 that, "...this holiday is all about Halo, GTA, Call of Duty, and a bunch of guitars and microphones." Schachter concurred, adding that "the two key titles are GTA IV and Halo, [and] beyond those a key battle is between Guitar Hero III and Rock Band."
Nintendo can't be underestimated either, however. According to GamerMetrics, "the Super Smash Bros. franchise's latest title, Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Wii), is poised to repeat the success of Super Smash Bros. Melee, which happens to be the best-selling Nintendo GameCube title of all time." The report added, "The Nintendo DS title, The Legend Of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass, is scheduled to launch in October and is the runaway favorite to be the best selling Nintendo DS title of the second half of the year."
Madden was the best selling game for 2006 .can it top HALO 3 and GTA 4 this year The sleepers
By their inherent nature, sleeper hits are very hard to predict. This holiday season is filled with sequels and high profile titles, making it even harder for smaller titles to stand out. Among the "hidden in plain sight" hits not mentioned by the analysts, Blue Dragon on Xbox 360 could potentially do a lot of business as one of the first true Japanese RPGs to hit the system and the appeal of Mario should never be underestimated – Super Mario Galaxy has the fan base quite excited. As for an "out of left field" hit, the Wii seems like the most likely console to house such a title, simply because it appeals widely outside of the normal gamer fanbase.
"I think that Guitar Hero III on the Wii could be a pleasant surprise," commented Pachter. "The game is both a hard core and a mass market game, and the Wii audience may embrace the concept, particularly if the controller allows the player to make his character jump around the stage. I also think that Call of Duty 4 may surprise people by getting the highest rating in the series, as I've heard nothing but great things about it. Splinter Cell: Conviction for the Xbox 360 will probably be a very strong seller as well."
"Call of Duty 4 - going modern day should rejuvenate the franchise, expand it, and generate some controversy which should spur interest. Guitar Hero III should be big. It's the first time it's on all platforms, there's insatiable demand for it out there, and the Wii version should be interesting," said Greenwald, concurring with most of the above sentiments. "Also, Assassins Creed looks very impressive and has a lot of buzz going for it."
Schachter agreed with his colleagues who have high hopes for Call of Duty 4: "I think Call of Duty might surprise as it really takes advantage of online capabilities and looks great."
Disappointments
With over 300 titles releasing in the second half of 2007, there are inevitably going to be some losers along with the winners. In a general sense, the 360 has a solid lineup of exclusives and hit titles (like BioShock and Mass Effect) that will likely carry it through the holidays and the Wii's broad appeal doesn't show any signs of diminishing. The PS3 also has a very solid line up, but the system is still establishing itself in the face of fierce competition, so it's very possible that exclusives like Haze and Unreal Tournament III might end up getting lost in the shuffle, especially when competing this holiday with titles such as Halo 3 and Killzone 2.
"Rock Band may disappoint, not because of quality (which is certain to be outstanding), but because of price," elaborated Pachter. "The game disc is $59.99, and peripherals are between $59.99 and $79.99, meaning that it costs $30 more than Guitar Hero for a game that is quite similar. There is no question in my mind that people will want the game and that it will receive great reviews, but the concept of putting together a band sounds a lot less compelling when it costs $199.99 to do so."
While almost everyone is expecting GTA IV to be a huge hit this fall/holiday, Greenwald noted that sales may not be as huge as previous GTA games, and as such Rockstar's latest could be a possible "disappointment."
"Possibly GTA IV, but only due to limited installed base out there - far fewer Xbox 360 + PS3s out there vs. PS2s when GTA: San Andreas was released," he commented.
Originally, Schachter was not sold on Uncharted Drake's Fortune for PS3 being a hit. When asked if it had anything to do with Naughty Dog wandering outside of the realm of cartoonish platformers, Schachter recanted saying, "I take back what I said about Uncharted. I saw it at E3 and really liked it."
Nevertheless, games in this category are at somewhat of a disadvantage to begin with. According to GamerMetrics, because "Action/Shooter titles account for almost 50 percent of mindshare with the exception of Halo 3 and Grand Theft Auto IV, a title releasing in these genres will experience tough competition regardless of platform."
The winners
This holiday will set the course for the rest of this console generation. There are no excuses this time, as each next-gen console has at least one Christmas under its belt, and the trends of this holiday likely will influence publishers for years to come. When it's all said and done, it's hard to not see Nintendo standing on a big pile of money, since demand for the Wii and DS continue to be very high and there are plenty of hot titles on the horizon. How the consoles, especially the Wii, affect third-party sales will have great impact on who profits most this holiday.
"Activision and Take-Two will gain the most share this holiday over last year," said Pachter. "Activision's lineup of catalog games (Spider-Man 3, Shrek the Third, Transformers) should all sell well at holiday, and new games Guitar Hero III, Tony Hawk's Proving Ground and Call of Duty 4 are all expected to do well. Take-Two will hit a home run with GTA IV. The dark horse could be Ubisoft, with an impressive lineup of Nintendo DS exclusives." Greenwald echoed these sentiments on winners, singling out Activision, "most likely driven by Guitar Hero III and Call of Duty 4," and also Ubisoft.
Schachter, meanwhile, is placing his bets on Nintendo, saying that "they are the company that can do no wrong at the moment and they have incredible momentum behind them."
GamerMetrics concluded by reminding everyone that the largest third-party publisher in the world shouldn't be counted out. "Electronic Arts' second-half lineup accounts for almost 20 percent mindshare on IGN over the last 90 days with key titles, including Half-Life 2: The Orange Box, Army of Two, Need for Speed Pro Street, Mercenaries 2, Medal of Honor: Airborne, and Rock Band," said the report.
by David Radd
GameDaily.com
